ETF Options Strategies
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ETF Options Strategies

John F. Carter 12/17/2013

For today we've got natural gas which is one of my favorite longs pulled back into the 8 EMA. Still looking for one -- we are due for a rest here for sure -- still looking for one little kicker bounce before we kind of go into a choppy sideways for probably like a week or so. And then after that looking for a continued move higher.

And then for USO also it held it's 21 EMA on Friday and looks pretty good here. If we can take out these highs we actually should get a nice seasonal run into Q 1. That could actually last for several weeks. So that is one that's setting up really nice right here.

And then TLT is still one of my favorite ones to the down side, i.e. buying puts. And you could see on a weekly chart that the momentum here has turned red. So we are off and running on all cylinders here for a short play, meaning buying puts.

What about the FMOC Meeting?

The one danger of course is we have the FMOC meeting this week. And so now you might ask, So what do we do in that regard? I actually just tend to look at the charts first. Charts in my experience tend to tell me what's happening correctly 80 percent of the time. So I am fine with buying puts here.

If the Fed comes out and says, you know what, we're going to keep doing quantitative easing and we're going to double it, obviously at that point TLT is going to rocket higher and I'll lose money but at this point I am willing to you know, moderate my risk obviously and then set up the trade accordingly. So something like this, if it may seem a risk, the simple answer to that, is just to trade smaller...but trust the chart, OK. It's all about probabilities. Hope it helps. You guys have a great night and we'll see you at the next update.